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At first, the former US president seemed to take a strong position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing warnings of "significant ramifications" in August if Russia's president carried on hindering peace talks, Trump eventually introduced major sanctions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This decision seriously impacted the Russian leader's ability to fund his aggression in the region.

However, via his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU input, Trump has clearly gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's proposal would essentially reward Putin for invading Ukraine while putting the country's democracy in jeopardy. Despite ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative actually undermine that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business past, the former president persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, implying giving Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the leader. But, Russia's war is not only about controlling a charred swath of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's obvious intention to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an enticing model for the Russian people of the responsible governance that Putin's deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While freezing in place the already split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been failed to occupy in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would make Ukraine's military defenses critically compromised.

The area is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that are a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, leaving Russian forces a open path to the capital should he eventually choose to resume the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would make renewed fighting simpler for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the scale of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, the proposal sets no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's campaign to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, Trump's proposal states: "All Nazi ideology and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no requirement that Putin risk his regime by holding votes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the plan includes Russia pledge not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has violated equivalent treaties in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should the international community believe this commitment this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on external security guarantees. While the proposal threatens a "decisive coordinated military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the specifics include unclear to concerning. The initiative would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent member states from positioning troops on the nation's land, effectively blocking the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his reduced military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Reaction

Another supplementary accord apparently would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This indicates a military response. However different from a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the dedication of Western powers, such as Trump, to act with force to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not