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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.